These are my thoughts:
1. Israel recently exposed Hezbollah positions in built up areas in Southern Lebanon. This gave away a lot of intel for public consumption. I believe they did it for following reasons:
- To let Hezbollah know that Israel knows exactly where they are in order to avoid Hezbollah trying any military action. Hezbollah is quiet aware of how quickly Israel can take out infrastructure. I think the by the end of the first week or so of operations in the Lebanon War Part 2, the Israeli air-force had run out of significant targets.
- If there is an incident, Israel has already exposed the fact that Hezbollah is deployed in built up areas and Israel will be justified in striking those areas. Hezbollah or the media can't claim that these positions were of innocent people - or so the thinking may go.
- A reason I don't know I don't know.
- Regardless, I believe Israel is doing all it can to avoid a military conflict with Hezbollah right now, specifically for the next thought...
2. Iran
- Iran needs Hezbollah as a deterrent. They are really the only significant deterrent they have against Israel. They were furious that Hezbollah went alone in Lebanon War Part 2 - since they, Iran, lost the element of surprise and ended up having to refurbish Hezbollah. Also, all of Israel society knows what to expect and on some level is prepared.
- Israel wants to keep the focus on Iran. This would be a distraction. Especially since, I believe, Israel has already made clear that it has changed the game with Hezbollah and HAMAS and reestablished a level of deterrence that it is satisfied with. (Deterrence has always been one of Israel's biggest items on its strategic agenda).
- If Israel does go after Hezbollah, I would think it would be connected to their approach to Iran.
3. Relations with US
- This is tricky. On one hand, if Israel looses faith in this administration, the relationship will mean less - although another major part of Israeli agenda is to have a major power on its side - however, less so now. Also remember that most people in the region want Israel to destroy Hezbollah (save HAMAS, Syria, Iran, and depending on which way the wind blows, the Lebanese Druze).
- The other issue is Bibi. Begin, Sharon, and many other Prime Ministers, did operations that the US was not happy about but the Prime Ministers felt were strategically necessary. I don't know if Bibi has the gumption, but I am certain he believes that being Prime Minister of Israel has a bigger impact on how history is written then immediate considerations. This isn't just about prosperity to these leaders, it is about destiny. I know that sounds a bit much, but they believe this position comes with thousand of years of history with it. At least that is what I have read. Also, if the Dems get beaten badly in upcoming election, the President will appear very weak.
4. Turkey
- I am not sure what impact Turkey will have on constraining Israel. Turkey and Israel have been having issues for a while. It is my belief that Turkey has either strategically decided to regain its glory in the Middle East, where they could really take a leadership role (i.e. "destiny" leadership), or are making it clear to Europe that they better let them into the EU.
- Bottom line, if you want street cred in the Middle East, it is always, always the same tune "Israel Sucks." The current ruling party in Turkey has some major political issues to deal with back at home. Like here, they need to energize their base, bashing Israel will help. Turkey isn't Israel's problem, it is Turkey's and the West's.
- Over flight to Iran might be the only issue for Israel, but I wonder now if the Israeli's intentionally dropped a fuselage in Turkey after they bombed the Syrian nuke site. If so, I think they made it clear that that they own the skies and gave Turkey the proverbial "finger". In fact, a recent article came out about camouflage paint that reduces radar profile of planes in Israel. Another message to Iran. However, I don't believe Israel will send an armada of planes over - that is for another posting.
4. Finally, as in anything, war is often not the logical choice but rather a series of misunderstandings and personal foibles. While I believe Nasrallah doesn't want to go another round with Israel right now, he is living like a man on the run who may be terminated at any moment. That could effect his thinking. There are so many moving parts in the Middle East, moves to stoke the "street", personalities and miscalculations that often times, the logical choice, or a choice of alternative logic, unfortunately wins the day.
In my opinion, all things equal as of this moment, Israel is not interested in going to war with Hezbollah and doing what it can to communicate this while strengthening its own deterrence.
